Beyond ‘statistical significance’: A nontechnical primer of Bayesian statistics and Bayes factors for health researchers

Abstract

AbstractRationaleHypothesis testing is integral to health research and is commonly completed through frequentist statistics focused on computing p values. p Values have been long criticized for offering limited information about the relationship of variables and strength of evidence concerning the plausibility, presence and certainty of associations among variables. Bayesian statistics is a potential alternative for inference‐making. Despite emerging discussion on Bayesian statistics across various disciplines, the uptake of Bayesian statistics in health research is still limited.AimTo offer a primer on Bayesian statistics and Bayes factors for health researchers to gain preliminary knowledge of its use, application and interpretation in health research.MethodsTheoretical and empirical literature on Bayesian statistics and methods were used to develop this methodological primer.ConclusionsUsing Bayesian statistics in health research without a careful and complete understanding of its underlying philosophy and differences from frequentist testing, estimation and interpretation methods can result in similar ritualistic use as done for p values.ImplicationsHealth researchers should supplement frequentists statistics with Bayesian statistics when analysing research data. The overreliance on p values for clinical decisions making should be avoided. Bayes factors offer a more intuitive measure of assessing the strength of evidence for null and alternative hypothesis.