Intensity (and backlash) of opinion on civil rights and presidential responsiveness

Abstract

AbstractIntense policy demanders will reward or punish elected officials depending on whether outcomes mesh with their preferences. In this article, we examine opinion intensity as manifested in public opinion mail (using unexplored data) to assess the impact of this opinion on civil rights policy approval during the pivotal year 1964. The more President Lyndon Johnson spoke about civil rights, the less supportive opinion mail he got the following week. The results suggest a backlash effect where ineffective attention to civil rights issues leads to less support from intense policy demanders. The findings speak to the importance of recognizing there are multiple opinion inputs to the president's agenda setting and intense policy demanders may punish as well as reward presidents.