Trends and projection in the proportion of (heavy) cannabis use in Germany from 1995 to 2021

Author:

Olderbak Sally1ORCID,Möckl Justin12,Manthey Jakob34ORCID,Lee Sara1,Rehm Jürgen35678ORCID,Hoch Eva12,Kraus Ludwig1910ORCID

Affiliation:

1. IFT Institut für Therapieforschung Munich Germany

2. Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy University Hospital, Ludwig‐Maximilians‐Universität Munich Munich Germany

3. Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Center for Interdisciplinary Addiction Research (ZIS) University Medical Center Hamburg‐Eppendorf Hamburg Germany

4. Department of Psychiatry, Faculty of Medicine University of Leipzig Leipzig Germany

5. Centre for Addiction and Mental Health Institute for Mental Health Policy Research and Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute Toronto Canada

6. Department of Psychiatry University of Toronto Toronto Canada

7. Dalla Lana School of Public Health University of Toronto Toronto Canada

8. Program on Substance Abuse and WHO CC Public Health Agency of Catalonia Barcelona Spain

9. Department of Public Health Sciences, Centre for Social Research on Alcohol and Drugs Stockholm University Stockholm Sweden

10. Institute of Psychology ELTE Eötvös Loránd University Budapest Hungary

Abstract

AbstractAimsTo measure the current trends of cannabis use in Germany, measure trends in the proportion of heavy cannabis users and estimate future cannabis use rates.DesignRepeated waves of the Epidemiological Survey on Substance Abuse, a cross‐sectional survey conducted between 1995 and 2021 with a two‐stage participant selection strategy where respondents completed a survey on substance use delivered through the post, over the telephone or on‐line.SettingGermany.Participants/casesGerman‐speaking participants aged between 18 and 59 years living in Germany who self‐reported on their cannabis use in the past 12 months (n = 78 678). With the application of a weighting scheme, the data are nationally representative.MeasurementsQuestions on the frequency of cannabis use in the past 12 months and self‐reported changes in frequency of use due to the COVID‐19 pandemic.FindingsThe prevalence of past 12‐month cannabis users increased from 4.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.7, 5.1] in 1995 to 10.0% (95% CI = 8.9, 11.3) in 2021. Modeling these trends revealed a significant increase that accelerated over the past decade. The proportion of heavy cannabis users [cannabis use (almost) daily or at least 200 times per year] among past‐year users has remained steady from 1995 (11.4%, 95% CI = 7.7, 16.5) to 2018 (9.5%, 95% CI = 7.6, 11.9), but significantly increased to 15.7% (95% CI = 13.1, 18.8) in 2021 during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Extrapolating from these models, the prevalence of 12‐month cannabis users in 2024 is expected to range between 10.4 and 15.0%, while the proportion of heavy cannabis users is unclear.ConclusionsTrends from 1995 to 2021 suggest that the prevalence of past 12‐month cannabis users in Germany will continue to increase, with expected rates between 10.4 and 15.0% for the German‐speaking adult population, and that at least one in 10 cannabis users will continue to use cannabis heavily (almost daily or 200 + times in the past year).

Funder

Bundesministerium für Gesundheit

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Psychiatry and Mental health,Medicine (miscellaneous)

Reference33 articles.

1. Bundesministerium für Gesundheit (BMG) [German Federal Ministry of Health].So sollen Jugendliche vor Cannabis‐Konsum geschützt werden. Fragen und Antworten zum Cannabisgesetz (Entwurf) Bundesministerium für Gesundheit [This is how young people are to be protected from cannabis use. Questions and answers on the Cannabis Act (draft) German Federal Ministry of Health];2023. Available at:https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/themen/cannabis/faq-cannabisgesetz-entwurf.html. Accessed 27 Sep 2023.

2. Assessing the public health impacts of legalizing recreational cannabis use: the US experience

3. Trends over time in adult cannabis use: A review of recent findings

4. Trends and correlates of cannabis use in Canada: a repeated cross‐sectional analysis of national surveys from 2004 to 2017;Lowry DE;Can Med Assoc J Open,2020

5. Changes in cannabis policy and prevalence of recreational cannabis use among adolescents and young adults in Europe—An interrupted time-series analysis

Cited by 5 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3