On the deduction and quantification of irruptive dynamics in mountain pine beetle population and proxy data

Author:

Cooke B. J.1ORCID,MacQuarrie C. J. K.1,Carroll A. L.2

Affiliation:

1. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre Sault Ste. Marie Ontario Canada

2. Dept. of Forest & Conservation Sciences The University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada

Abstract

AbstractIn attempting to develop a coherent description of the irruptive dynamics of mountain pine beetle (MPB) in North America, we examined a range of cases where authors described the dependency of intrinsic population growth rates on population attack levels. In some cases, detailed population data were used, but in most cases, investigators relied on operational aerial detection survey data. We found that study conclusions varied significantly depending on the type of data analysed and the spatial and temporal dimensions of the monitoring program. The ability to detect an intrinsic Allee effect (i.e., positive density‐dependent growth for low and rising population densities) depended on the type and the intensity of the sampling effort and the extent of sampling in space and time. Consequently, not all studies were able to quantify the irruption threshold (i.e., the population density at which endemic populations may transition towards the epidemic state). Notably, in every study where an Allee effect was demonstrated, investigators also identified at least one extrinsic environmental factor (e.g., winter weather, summer drought, microclimatic effect) that was regulating its strength. Our results suggest that population surveys conducted from the ground are a necessary complement to aerial survey data if the goal is to make inferences about the irruptive potential for MPB populations and the role of environmental factors in shaping that irruptive potential.

Publisher

Wiley

Reference51 articles.

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3. Amman G. D. Lessard G. D. Rasmussen L. A. &Oneil C. G.(1988).Lodgepole pine vigor regeneration and infestation by mountain pine‐beetle following partial cutting on the Shoshone National Forest Wyoming. USDA Forest Service intermountain Research Station research paper 1–8.

4. Movement of outbreak populations of mountain pine beetle: influences of spatiotemporal patterns and climate

5. Landscape level analysis of mountain pine beetle in British Columbia, Canada: spatiotemporal development and spatial synchrony within the present outbreak

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