Affiliation:
1. Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis, US Department of Agriculture Washington, DC USA
2. Food Safety and Inspection Service, US Department of Agriculture Fort Collins Colorado USA
Abstract
AbstractThe incidence of human illness due to Salmonella Infantis reported to Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network and the prevalence of Infantis on chicken carcasses reported by the United States Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service have increased significantly in the past decade. However, the trends do not appear coincident, as would be expected if the increased prevalence in chicken led to the increase in the incidence of human illness. Salmonella Infantis incidence and prevalence trends are analyzed using penalized B‐spline methods for generalized additive regression models. The association between the two time series is analyzed using time‐lagged rank‐order cross‐correlation. Geographic variations in reported incidence and trends are also explored. The increase in human incidence of Salmonella Infantis began circa 2011. The increase in chicken carcass prevalence began circa 2015. A 4‐year lag on chicken carcass prevalence maximizes the rank‐order cross‐correlation with the incidence of illness. While chicken consumption undoubtedly contributes to the incidence of human illness due to Salmonella Infantis, the initial increase in reported illness was likely due to one or more other transmission pathways. Other potential transmission pathways include non‐chicken foodborne, waterborne, person‐to‐person, animal contact, and environmental.