Has the electoral college grown more disproportional? An analysis of election results, 1876–2020

Abstract

AbstractEspecially following the 2000 and the 2016 presidential elections, some authors have denounced the legitimacy of the Electoral College as a presidential selection method. It is alleged that the college is not representative of the electorate as a whole and tends to favor one specific political party. In this article, we compare the popular vote with the composition of the Electoral College for every presidential contest since 1876 (n = 37 elections). We confirm that the college is indeed disproportional as it provides a major bonus to the winning candidate. Although this disproportionality has become slightly stronger during the 1876–2020 period, it does not specifically benefit one political party. Measured at the level of the states, there is no substantial increase in bias with regard to geographic representation. However, to the extent that electoral races become tighter, as was the case in the last quarter of the 19th century, the risk that results fall within a margin of statistical error becomes larger. This suggests that the current controversy finds its source less in the electoral rules and more in the situational and highly competitive balance of party competition.Related ArticlesArdoin, Phillip J., and Bryan M. Parsons. 2007. “Partisan Bias in the Electoral College: Cheap States and Wasted Votes.”Politics & Policy35(2): 342–64.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2007.00063.x.Crow, Deserai, and Laura Wolton. 2020. “Talking Policy in Congressional Campaigns: Construction of Policy Narratives in Electoral Politics.”Politics & Policy48(4): 658–99.https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12369.McKenzie, Mark. 2009. “Attitudes toward Electoral College Reform: Understanding Opinion Formation on Complicated Public Policy Issues.”Politics & Policy37(2): 265–88.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00172.x.