COVID‐19 and Long‐Term Economic Growth

Abstract

AbstractThis article investigates the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the long‐term economic growth of South Africa. We embed an epidemiological model in a modified Solow–Swan model and explore various channels such as morbidity, mortality, unemployment, loss of school days and capital accumulation. We demonstrate that COVID‐19 will lower the average annual growth rate of GDP per capita of South Africa by 0.07 percentage points in the next four decades, a 25 per cent decline relative to the no‐COVID benchmark. We show that human capital losses due to school closures account for more than half of the economic slowdown.