Risk prediction of hepatobiliary and pancreatic cancers in elderly Chinese: The Dongfeng‐Tongji cohort

Author:

Lyu Jingjing12,Guan Xin13,Zhou Yuhan13,Guo Huan13,Cheng Shanshan12,Wang Chaolong12ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Environment and Health State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating) School of Public Health Tongji Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan China

2. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public Health Tongji Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan China

3. Department of Occupational and Environmental Health School of Public Health Tongji Medical College Huazhong University of Science and Technology Wuhan China

Abstract

AbstractAimHepatobiliary and pancreatic (HBP) cancers are among the deadliest malignancies. The objective of the study is to build cost‐effective models to identify high‐risk individuals for early diagnosis and substantially to reduce the burden of HBP cancers.MethodsBased on the prospective Dongfeng‐Tongji cohort with ∼6 years follow‐up, we identified 162 incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), 53 of biliary tract cancer (BTC), and 58 of pancreatic cancer (PC). We matched three controls to each case by age, sex, and hospital. We applied conditional logistic regression to identify predictive clinical variables, from which we constructed clinical risk scores (CRSs). We evaluated the utility of CRSs in stratifying high‐risk individuals by 10‐fold cross‐validation.ResultsAmong 50 variables we screened, 6 were independent predictors of HCC, with the top ones being hepatitis (OR = 8.51, 95% CI (3.83, 18.9)), plateletcrit (OR = 0.57, 95% CI (0.42, 0.78)), and alanine aminotransferase (OR = 2.06, 95% CI (1.39, 3.06)). Gallstone (OR = 2.70, 95% CI (1.17, 6.24)) and direct bilirubin (OR = 1.58, 95% CI (1.08, 2.31)) were predictive of BTC, while hyperlipidemia (OR = 2.56, 95% CI (1.12, 5.82)) and fasting blood glucose (OR = 2.00, 95% CI (1.26, 3.15)) were predictive of PC. The CRSs achieved AUCs of 0.784 for HCC, 0.648 for BTC, and 0.666 for PC, respectively. When applying to the full cohort with age and sex included as predictors, the AUCs were increased to 0.818, 0.704, and 0.699, respectively.ConclusionsDisease history and routine clinical variables are predictive of incident HBP cancers in elderly Chinese.

Funder

National Key Research and Development Program of China

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities

Publisher

Wiley

Subject

Health Policy,General Medicine

Cited by 2 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3