Affiliation:
1. School of Public Health Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
2. Department of Surveillance and Research National Center for Communicable Diseases Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
3. Department of Statistics University of California Los Angeles California USA
4. Department of Family Medicine, School of Medicine Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
5. COVID‐19 Incident Management Support Team World Health Organization Regional Office for the Western Pacific Manila Philippines
6. College of Veterinary Medicine University of the Philippines Los Baños Laguna Philippines
7. Ministry of Health Ulaanbaatar Mongolia
Abstract
ABSTRACTBackgroundFollowing the first locally transmitted case in Sukhbaatar soum, Selenge Province, we aimed to investigate the ultimate scale of the epidemic in the scenario of uninterrupted transmission.MethodsThis was a prospective case study following the locally modified WHO FFX cases generic protocol. A rapid response team collected data from November 14 to 29, 2020. We created a stochastic process to draw many transmission chains from this greater distribution to better understand and make inferences regarding the outbreak under investigation.ResultsThe majority of the cases involved household transmissions (35, 52.2%), work transmissions (20, 29.9%), index (5, 7.5%), same apartment transmissions (2, 3.0%), school transmissions (2, 3.0%), and random contacts between individuals transmissions (1, 1.5%). The posterior means of the basic reproduction number of both the asymptomatic cases and the presymptomatic cases (1.35 [95% CrI 0.88–1.86] and 1.29 [95% CrI 0.67–2.10], respectively) were lower than that of the symptomatic cases (2.00 [95% Crl 1.38–2.76]).ConclusionOur study highlights the heterogeneity of COVID‐19 transmission across different symptom statuses and underscores the importance of early identification and isolation of symptomatic cases in disease control. Our approach, which combines detailed contact tracing data with advanced statistical methods, can be applied to other infectious diseases, facilitating a more nuanced understanding of disease transmission dynamics.
Reference34 articles.
1. Health emergency preparedness and response to the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons learnt from Mongolia
2. Ministry of Health Mongolia “Health Ministerial Order no.269: Interim Guideline for COVID‐19 Surveillance Prevention and Rapid Response ” published online April 29 2020 https://moh.gov.mn/uploads/files/c5ece091d53498a44209f967428c4acb0eaecd2d.pdf.
3. World Health Organisation “The UNITY Studies: WHO Sero‐Epidemiological Investigations Protocols ” accessed June 24 2022 https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel‐coronavirus‐2019/technical‐guidance/early‐investigations.
4. WHO Mongolia Country Office “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) Situation Report #29 ” accessed June 20 2022 https://www.who.int/docs/default‐source/wpro‐‐‐documents/countries/mongolia/covid‐19/sitrep‐29‐2020‐11‐22.pdf?sfvrsn=eb6747cd_2.