Priming effect stimulates carbon release from thawed permafrost

Abstract

AbstractClimate warming leads to widespread permafrost thaw with a fraction of the thawed permafrost carbon (C) being released as carbon dioxide (CO2), thus triggering a positive permafrost C‐climate feedback. However, large uncertainty exists in the size of this model‐projected feedback, partly owing to the limited understanding of permafrost CO2 release through the priming effect (i.e., the stimulation of soil organic matter decomposition by external C inputs) upon thaw. By combining permafrost sampling from 24 sites on the Tibetan Plateau and laboratory incubation, we detected an overall positive priming effect (an increase in soil C decomposition by up to 31%) upon permafrost thaw, which increased with permafrost C density (C storage per area). We then assessed the magnitude of thawed permafrost C under future climate scenarios by coupling increases in active layer thickness over half a century with spatial and vertical distributions of soil C density. The thawed C stocks in the top 3 m of soils from the present (2000–2015) to the future period (2061–2080) were estimated at 1.0 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8–1.2) and 1.3 (95% CI: 1.0–1.7) Pg (1 Pg = 1015 g) C under moderate and high Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. We further predicted permafrost priming effect potential (priming intensity under optimal conditions) based on the thawed C and the empirical relationship between the priming effect and permafrost C density. By the period 2061–2080, the regional priming potentials could be 8.8 (95% CI: 7.4–10.2) and 10.0 (95% CI: 8.3–11.6) Tg (1 Tg = 1012 g) C year−1 under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. This large CO2 emission potential induced by the priming effect highlights the complex permafrost C dynamics upon thaw, potentially reinforcing permafrost C‐climate feedback.