Tree species growth response to climate warming varies by forest canopy position in boreal and temperate forests

Abstract

AbstractReports of forest sensitivity to climate change are based largely on the study of overstory trees, which contribute significantly to forest growth and wood supply. However, juveniles in the understory are also critical to predict future forest dynamics and demographics, but their sensitivity to climate remains less known. In this study, we applied boosted regression tree analysis to compare the sensitivity of understory and overstory trees for the 10 most common tree species in eastern North America using growth information from an unprecedented network of nearly 1.5 million tree records from 20,174 widely distributed, permanent sample plots across Canada and the United States. Fitted models were then used to project the near‐term (2041–2070) growth for each canopy and tree species. We observed an overall positive effect of warming on tree growth for both canopies and most species, leading to an average of 7.8%–12.2% projected growth gains with climate change under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The magnitude of these gains peaked in colder, northern areas for both canopies, while growth declines are projected for overstory trees in warmer, southern regions. Relative to overstory trees, understory tree growth was less positively affected by warming in northern regions, while displaying more positive responses in southern areas, likely driven by the buffering effect of the canopy from warming and climate extremes. Observed differences in climatic sensitivity between canopy positions underscore the importance of accounting for differential growth responses to climate between forest strata in future studies to improve ecological forecasts. Furthermore, latitudinal variation in the differential sensitivity of forest strata to climate reported here may help refine our comprehension of species range shift and changes in suitable habitat under climate change.