Statistical Assessment of Human Development Index Variations and Their Correlates: A Case Study of Aceh Province, Indonesia

Abstract

The Human Development Index (HDI) provides a holistic measure of human development in a country or locality. This study aims to identify factors correlated with changes in the Human Development Index and analyze changes in the distribution of the Human Development Index in Aceh Province from 2012 to 2022. Apart from the Human Development Index as the variable used in this study, five variables are used in this study as indicators: Life Expectancy, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Per Capita Expenditure, Average Years of Schooling, and Expected Years of Schooling as socioeconomic factors. This research uses an ecological study design. Data was sourced from the "Aceh in Figures" report by the Central Bureau of Statistics of Aceh Province. The statistical methods used were descriptive statistics, the Shapiro-Wilk test for normality, the Spearman test for correlation analysis, the Wilcoxon one-sample test for data distribution, and the Kruskal-Wallis test to compare distributions. Based on the correlation analysis, the study revealed that the five socioeconomic variables tested showed a significant positive correlation with changes in the HDI in Aceh Province (p-value < 0.05). In addition, the difference analysis showed a significantly different distribution of HDI across the years studied (p-value < 0.05), with a pattern of increasing HDI observed from the beginning to the end of the study period. The recommended based on finding of the study is policymakers and stakeholders focus on strategies that enhance the positive correlates identified Finally, these results provide important and structured insights into the role of factors in HDI change.