Development of the technique for selecting effective projects based on the modified AHP through the expansion of the criteria base and the apparatus of mathematical statistics

Abstract

The author continues a series of publications in the subject area of the first generation modifications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method for the effective project selection technique. The long term aim of the research is to develop this technique to the qualitatively new and universal states to be further transformed into methodology. The research results are presented. A new concept of “Supermarket” extends the criteria basis of the core in the technique providing a possibility to take into account conventionally unlimited number of any criteria in multilevel hierarchy. The first basic factor of the technique - AHPMS - is extended with a new classifier AHPMS(AM), so that Analytic Hierarchy combines with mathematical statistics methods on the basis of artificial measurements. The third basic factor of AHPDD scientifically new to the technique data is added where analytic hierarchy is combined with deterministic data. The second basic factor in FAHPMS form (AHP synthesis with the methods of fuzzy sets and mathematical statistics methods) has not been strongly extended yet. All the three basic factors in the form of the mentioned classifiers, that are AHP modifiers, use measurement standard of local and ultima analysi resultants of hierarchy priorities via a special formula to calculate matrix estimators. Taking into account this standard the technique was extended with “Statistics Supermarket” for the first and second factors. More than 70 criteria of mathematical statistics were included into the category to extend the possibilities of expert assessments and extend or replace conformity relations in AHP. New formulas to calculate RCSL (resulting compatibility solution level). Application area of the above research results is the development of the investment management and managerial decisions theory. In action the technique will make it possible for the concerned parties to assess and select effective projects for the development of economic and other actors at different economics and management levels.