Analysis of temporal evolution of tourist visits to the Morón de la Frontera region (Spain). Two possible explanatory variables of this evolution

Abstract

The municipality of Morón de la Frontera located in the province of Seville (Spain) has been promoting tourist visits in recent years, measured through the number of visitors, as another public and private income source. This number, considered at a monthly or annual level, is a good indicator of the tourist evolution of the municipality and, for this reason, in this work, it is chosen as an objective variable, in the sense of trying to explain it from nearby variables. Then, for the said variable, we carry out a TRAMO analysis, reflecting its trend and showing its seasonality. Also, a regression analysis with the objective variable explained by the time series measures the number of monthly visitors to the province of Seville, resulting in a positive and significant correlation of 0.4914 between both series. And, finally, a regression analysis where the objective variable, this time measured at an annual level, is explained by the GDP of the province of Seville, showing a positive and significant correlation, 0.489.