Linking zooplankton assemblages with oceanographic zones in an Atlantic coastal ecosystem

Abstract

Shallow (5–35 m depth) coastal waters, with their proximity to human populations, are likely to experience greater changes to ecosystem structure and functions from climate change and human impacts than offshore waters. Concerns of declining fisheries landings and deteriorating habitat quality in Northumberland Strait led to an assessment by Fisheries and Oceans Canada of the state of the environment and biota including zooplankton during the summer. In this paper we describe spatial structure of zooplankton (three distinct assemblages) and determined that two oceanographic zones can explain the spatial variation. Using distance-based linear models, bottom water temperature and surface water salinity explained 16% to 25% of the variation in zooplankton composition for each year of the survey. We used retrospective analyses to estimate what the zooplankton assemblage may have resembled in the early 1990s from data of oceanographic conditions. Given the prediction of warming oceans by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we provide a means of predicting zooplankton composition and their distribution, with implications for the planktivorous fishes that prey upon them.