Temporal patterns and ecosystem correlates of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) migration phenology in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract

Understanding and quantifying migration phenology of commercially harvested Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) is a cornerstone for managing sustainable populations. Here, we use a multidecadal data time series together with a hypothesis-driven framework to evaluate migration phenology in adult fall and winter ecotype chum salmon (O. keta) in a poorly studied but highly managed system — the South Puget Sound (SPS) of Washington State, USA. Using generalized additive mixed models that accounted for temporal autoregressive dynamics, we examined the effect of commercial harvest, climate variation, intraspecific density dependence, and predator buffering on migration timing and run duration. SPS chum salmon are migrating earlier over time, especially the winter ecotype that showed the strongest temporal shift from historical timing. Migration timing shifts were closely associated with regional marine climate regimes, local scale freshwater availability, and increasing pinniped abundance. We conclude that there is potential for the winter ecotype migration converging with that of the fall ecotype and that directional change in migration phenology may be driven by a unique combination of ecosystem factors.