Re-evaluating Atlantic cod mortality including lobster bycatch: where could we be today?

Abstract

Full accounting of fisheries mortality is one of the most tractable ways to improve stock assessments. However, it can be challenging to obtain in cases when missing catch comes from small-scale nontarget fisheries unrequired to report incidental catch. Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the Gulf of Maine (GoM), USA, once served as a regionally important fishery, but has been serially depleted to <5% of historic spawning stock biomass. Recent management efforts to rebuild GoM cod have largely failed. We test the hypothesis that unaccounted bycatch of Atlantic cod in the Maine American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery is a substantial missing piece in the GoM Atlantic cod assessment. We integrated multiple scenarios of hind-casted discards into the two accepted regional cod assessment models from 1982 to 2016. Incorporation of discards improved the assessment bias for both models (10%–15%), increased estimates of spawning stock biomass (4%), and decreased estimates of fishing mortality (9%). A novel evaluation of longitudinal model bias suggests that alternative modelling approaches or specifications may be warranted. We highlight the importance of accounting for all fishery-related mortality and the need for methods to deliver more comprehensive estimates from both target and nontarget fisheries.