Environmental variability and fishing effects on the Pacific sardine fisheries in the Gulf of California

Author:

Giron-Nava Alfredo123,Ezcurra Exequiel4,Brias Antoine56,Velarde Enriqueta7,Deyle Ethan18,Cisneros-Montemayor Andrés M.9,Munch Stephan B.56,Sugihara George1,Aburto-Oropeza Octavio1

Affiliation:

1. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr., La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.

2. National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California Santa Barbara, 735 State St. #300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA.

3. Future Earth, School of Global Environmental Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA.

4. The University of California Institute for Mexico and the United States (UC MEXUS), Center of Conservation Biology (CCB), Department of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California Riverside, 900 University Avenue, Riverside, CA 92521, USA.

5. Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA.

6. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA.

7. Instituto de Ciencias Marinas y Pesquerías, Universidad Veracruzana, Hidalgo 617, Col. Río Jamapa, Boca del Río, Veracruz, 94290, Mexico.

8. Boston University, One Silber Way, Boston, MA 02215, USA.

9. Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.

Abstract

Small pelagic fish support some of the largest fisheries globally, yet there is an ongoing debate about the magnitude of the impacts of environmental processes and fishing activities on target species. We use a nonparametric, nonlinear approach to quantify these effects on the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the Gulf of California. We show that the effect of fishing pressure and environmental variability are comparable. Furthermore, when predicting total catches, the best models account for both drivers. By using empirical dynamic programming with average environmental conditions, we calculated optimal policies to ensure long-term sustainable fisheries. The first policy, the equilibrium maximum sustainable yield, suggests that the fishery could sustain an annual catch of ∼2.16 × 105 tonnes. The second policy with dynamic optimal effort, reveals that the effort from 2 to 4 years ago impacts the current maximum sustainable effort. Consecutive years of high effort require a reduction to let the stock recover. Our work highlights a new framework that embraces the complex processes that drive fisheries population dynamics yet produces simple and robust advice to ensure long-term sustainable fisheries.

Publisher

Canadian Science Publishing

Subject

Aquatic Science,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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