Effects of climatic change on trees from cool and temperate regions: an ecophysiological approach to modelling of bud burst phenology

Abstract

A framework is presented for modelling bud burst phenology of trees from the cool and temperate regions. Three ecophysiological aspects affecting the timing of bud burst are considered: (i) effects of environmental factors on the rest status of the bud, (ii) effect of rest status on the ability for bud burst, and (iii) direct effect of air temperature on the rate of development towards bud burst. Any model for bud burst phenology can be presented within the framework with three submodels, each of them addressing one of the corresponding three ecophysiological aspects. A total of 96 hypothetical models were synthesized by combining submodels presented in the literature. The models were tested in two experiments with saplings of Pinus sylvestris L. growing in experimental chambers at their natural site in eastern Finland. In the first experiment, air temperature and (or) concentration of atmospheric CO2 was elevated. Elevation of the air temperature hastened bud burst, whereas elevation of the concentration of CO2 did not affect it. Several models accurately predicted the timing of bud burst for natural conditions but too early for bud burst at the elevated temperatures. This finding suggests that (i) the risk of a premature bud burst with subsequent frost damage, as a result of climatic warming, was overestimated in a recent simulation study, and (ii) bud burst observations in natural conditions alone are not sufficient for the testing of these mechanistic models. Several models did predict the timing of bud burst accurately for all treatments, but none of them obtained sufficiently strong support from the findings to stand out as superior or uniquely correct. In the second experiment a photoperiod submodel for rest break was tested by exposing the saplings to short-day conditions. The short-day treatment had only a minor effect on the timing of bud burst. These results demonstrated the importance of the concept of model realism: the accuracy of a model can be lost in new conditions (e.g., global warming), unless the model correctly addresses the essential ecophysiological aspects of the regulation of timing of bud burst. Key words: annual cycle of development, chilling, dormancy, field test, photoperiod, rest break.