The Canadian forest product sector: a sectoral econometric model

Abstract

A sectoral model of the forest product sector (FPS) comprising the wood, furniture, and pulp and paper industries has been developed and estimated from 31 (1961–1991) years of data. The model consists of seven behavioral equations ((i) total output, (ii) domestic consumption, (iii) exports, (iv) imports, and prices of (v) consumption, (vi) exports, and (vii) imports) and one identity for each industry. Four additional identities complete the structure of the entire FPS model. The performance of this model is evaluated by sample period simulation. A forecast has been made for the next 5 years, and impact analysis has been done for changes in housing activity. The forecast indicates a slower annual growth in the FPS than in the total economy.