Modèles linéaires de prédiction des débarquements de homard aux Iles-de-la-Madeleine (Golfe du Saint-Laurent)

Abstract

Annual lobster landings (1912–74) at the Magdalen Islands can be represented with the Box and Jenkins method, by a first order autoregressive model which explains 41.9% of the total variance. Analysis of fishing effort and surface temperature yields, through a regression on principal components, a linear model that includes the first and makes use of the December temperature [Formula: see text] ago and that of the winter [Formula: see text] ago. This prediction model explains 84.4% of the total variance. The biological interpretation is as follows: annual landings depend on available stock, on the influence of temperature on the survival probability of larvae and possibly, on a similar influence on the probability of access to sexual maturity of the 5-yr-old class.