Demographics and social values as drivers of change in the Canadian boreal zone1

Abstract

The boreal zone, a vast region with abundant natural resources and related industries, has both provisioning and nonprovisioning ecosystem services that draw some people, while warding off others. It is an area that arguably affects many Canadians in different ways and represents a wide range of tangible and intangible values. Changes in demographic patterns over time shed light on the development of the social-ecological landscape of the boreal zone, and elucidate potential changes in the future. Using past and current demographic data, we explore population size, immigration and emigration, and birth and death rates within and outside the boreal zone. We also explore links between demographics, social values, and important factors of change in the boreal zone, and present three contrasting scenarios predicting the state of this zone in 2050. We pay particular attention to the Indigenous population, generational differences, international immigration, and the urban–rural divide. Fertility rates and immigration influence population demographics within and outside the boreal zone, respectively, alluding to potential divergences in social values and between communities located within and outside the boreal zone. The boreal zone is currently comprised of many smaller towns and communities scattered across the landscape, yet it is equally important to consider the influences of larger cities located outside the boreal zone, particularly in terms of governance, population movements, and political power. Considered together, these factors provide insight on social cohesion and connectedness, demand for goods and services, and changes in boreal-centric activities.