Behavior of experimental grass fires vs. predictions based on Rothermel's fire model

Abstract

Fire behavior observations with rates of spread up to 20 m/min (66 ft/min) have been recorded on 40 prescribed grass fires in central Washington and northern California. Physical parameters were also recorded describing the grass fuel array (fuel load, moisture content (≤ 15%), etc.), along with the wind speed (up to 8 km/h) and slope (near zero). These data were sufficient to allow a prediction of the fire spread rate, combustion zone depth, and flame length using the Rothermel fire spread model.A least squares fit of the observed versus the predicted results shows that positive agreement (slope = 1, intercept = 0) is supported for rate of spread. Flame length shows positive agreement for the intercept but not for slope. Combustion zone depth does not show positive agreement for either intercept or slope. The authors attribute the lack of positive agreement to less accurate measurements (ocular estimates) of the flame length and combustion zone depth.