Assessing the climatic potential for epizootics of the gypsy moth fungal pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga in the North Central United States

Abstract

The fungal pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga Humber, Shimazu et Soper has become an important biocontrol for gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar (L.)) in the northeastern United States and is commonly introduced into new areas with established gypsy moth populations. Germination of the fungus is dependent on spring temperature and moisture, but specific conditions associated with epizootics have not been determined. Whether E. maimaiga will be as effective in other regions that experience different weather conditions is not yet known. We examined similarity of weather conditions associated with 16 documented E. maimaiga epizootics with conditions at 1351 North American locations using the climate-matching software CLIMEX. Based on CLIMEX’s overall index of climatic similarity, long-term annual climatic patterns across much of the eastern United States were 60%–80% similar to the conditions associated with epizootics. Monthly weather records from 1971 to 2000 in nine North Central states were examined to compare precipitation and temperature with conditions observed during epizootics. Based on climatic averages identified with the documented epizootics, temperature and precipitation conditions in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, and Ohio were more conducive for epizootics than conditions in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, which were likely to support E. maimaiga epizootics in fewer than 6 of the 30 years considered.