Assessing the influence of climate controls on grapevine biophysical responses: a review of Ontario viticulture in a changing climate

Abstract

Climate change presents unique challenges for grape growers across the world. In Ontario, three distinct viticultural regions are experiencing climatic shifts towards warmer growing seasons. According to historical records collected from Environment and Climate Change Canada, Lake Erie North Shore has transitioned from an intermediate-to-warm growing season classification, the Niagara Peninsula from the lower to upper limits of the intermediate zone, and Prince Edward County from cool to intermediate, when analyzing their average growing season temperatures. Terroir is directly related to vine water status, an indicator of grapevine stress. Biophysical responses controlled by air temperature and precipitation include fluctuations in vapour pressure deficits, evapotranspiration, and water-use-efficiency rates, as well as soil water content levels. By conducting an extensive literature review, the development of a conceptual model addresses how variations in climatic controls, under the scope of climate change, may influence grapevine water status, biophysical responses, and associated production outcomes for Ontario vineyards. Cool-to-intermediate air temperatures, when paired with increased precipitation will lead to no or low vine stress, increasing photosynthesis and transpiration rates, and variable plant water-use-efficiency levels, producing higher yields and lower quality grapes, if no management strategies are applied. Oppositely, higher air temperature as a product of climate change, when paired with variable precipitation may produce mild-to-severe stress, reducing yield, and increasing grape quality. With the appropriate management strategies, both traditional and new, growers may be able to accommodate for the influence of climate change on their vineyards.