A Procedure Using Modeling and Error Analysis for the Prediction of Lake Phosphorus Concentration from Land Use Information

Abstract

Recent work in the area of empirical lake modeling and error analysis has resulted in some useful methods for the assessment of lake trophic quality. These methods are incorporated into the procedure presented herein for the prediction of lake phosphorus concentration. The procedure is described in a step-by-step manner; it begins with the estimation of phosphorus flux from major land use types and ends with the estimation of trophic state from the phosphorus concentration prediction. A nonparametric error analysis is included to supplement the prediction of phosphorus concentration. This assessment of uncertainty is an indication of the value of the information provided by the model. The method may be easily applied to most north temperate lakes, and an example is presented to illustrate its use.Key words: eutrophication, lakes, model, error analysis, phosphorus, land use planning