Lightning-ignited forest fires in northwestern Ontario

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between lightning activity and the occurrence of lightning-ignited forest fires in the Northwestern Region of Ontario. We found that the Duff Moisture Code (a component of the Fire Weather Index System) and the multiplicity of the negative lightning discharges were the most important variables for estimating the number of lightning-ignited fires on a daily basis for Universal Transverse Mercator zone15 in Ontario. Also, the results indicate that negative lightning ignited more fires than positive lightning discharges, which is contrary to popular belief. Nearly 50% of the variance in the forest fire occurrence data was explained using linear stepwise regression. Future work will focus on finer temporal and spatial scales.