Genetically-optimized origin-destination estimation (GOODE) model: application to regional commodity movements in Ontario

Abstract

The problem of origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation has attracted significant research attention in the past few decades. This paper proposes a novel approach to estimate a regional freight O-D matrix using different data sources. The genetically optimized origin-destination estimation (GOODE) model takes advantage of the genetic algorithm's (GA) global search procedure to find the O-D matrix that is associated with the minimum deviation between estimated and observed data values. The GOODE-commodity model, an extension of the GOODE model, estimates the freight O-D matrix by interfacing GOODE with a trip generation model based on input-output data. The GOODE model and its extension bring together national input-output data, truck survey data, a global searching method, and a GIS platform for data manipulation. This paper presents the GOODE model structure, a prototypical numerical example, a benchmarking exercise with an existing O-D estimation model, and a real-world application of the GOODE-commodity model for a case study of commodity movements in Ontario. Avenues for future research are also addressed.Key words: origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation, truck transportation modelling, input-output, Ontario, genetic algorithm.