Predation and food–weather interactions drive colony collapse in a managed metapopulation of Arctic Terns (Sterna paradisaea)

Abstract

Seabirds are considered bioindicators of bottom-up ecosystem processes, owing to seabirds’ dependence on marine prey. However, ground-nesting seabirds are susceptible to predation, which can limit their use as bioindicators. Machias Seal Island (MSI) supported the largest colony of Arctic Terns (Sterna paradisaea Pontoppidan, 1763) in the Gulf of Maine metapopulation, but prolonged breeding failure led ∼90% of terns to abandon the colony in 2006. We analyzed 12 years of food, weather, and predation data using logistic regression models to determine which had the strongest influence on breeding success. Food–weather interactions were important; under low rainfall, more euphausiids (northern krill, Meganyctiphanes norvegica (M. Sars, 1857)) in the diet increased breeding success, but euphausiids had a negative effect as rainfall became moderate or high. Predation by Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus Pontoppidan, 1763) increased following the cessation of lethal predator control; we identified a predation threshold of 25%, beyond which terns could not breed successfully. The collapse of MSI’s tern colony can be attributed entirely to gull predation. The breeding success of terns at MSI cannot be used as a bottom-up ecosystem bioindicator without accounting for predation. Managers of ground-nesting seabirds should consider predation and food as equally valid potential causes of population or reproductive declines.