Assessing the relative threats from Canadian volcanoes

Abstract

We assessed 28 Canadian volcanoes in terms of their relative threats to people, aviation, and infrastructure. The methodology we used was developed by the United States Geological Survey for the 2005 National Volcano Early Warning System. Each volcano is scored on multiple hazard and exposure factors, producing an overall threat score. The scored volcanoes are assigned to five threat categories, ranging from Very Low to Very High. We developed a knowledge uncertainty score to provide additional information about assessed threat levels; this does not affect the threat scoring. Two Canadian volcanoes are in the Very High threat category (Mt. Garibaldi and Mt. Meager). Three Canadian volcanoes are in the High threat category (Mt. Cayley, Mt. Price, and Mt. Edziza) and one volcano is in the Moderate threat category (Mt. Silverthrone). We compare the ranked Canadian volcanoes to volcanoes in the USA and assess current levels of monitoring against internationally recognized monitoring strategies. We find that even one of the best-studied volcanoes in Canada (Mt. Meager) falls significantly short of the recommended monitoring level and is currently monitored at a level commensurate with a Very Low threat edifice. All other Canadian volcanoes are unmonitored (apart from falling within a regional seismic network). This threat ranking has been used to prioritize hazard and risk assessment targets and to help select monitoring activities that will most effectively address the undermonitoring of Canadian volcanoes.