Variance and efficiency of the combined estimator in incomplete block designs of use in forest genetics: a numerical study

Abstract

The efficiency of combined interblock-intrablock and intrablock analysis for the estimation of treatment contrasts in alpha designs is compared using Monte-Carlo simulation. The combined estimator considers treatments and replications as fixed effects and blocks as random effects, whereas the intrablock estimator considers treatments, replications, and blocks as fixed effects. The variances of the estimators are used as the criterion for comparison. The combined estimator yields more accurate estimates than the intrablock estimator when the ratio of the block to the error variance is small, especially for designs with the fewest degrees of freedom. The accuracy of both estimators is similar when the ratio of variances is large. The variance of the combined estimator is very close to that of the best linear unbiased estimator except for designs with small number of replicates and families or provenances. Approximations commonly used for the variance of the combined estimator when variances of the random effects are unknown are studied. The downward or negative bias in the estimates of the variance given by the standard approximation used in statistical packages is largest under the conditions in which the combined estimator is more efficient than the intrablock estimator. Estimates of the relative efficiency of combined estimators have an upward bias that can exceed 10% of the true value in small- and middle-sized designs with two or three replicates. In designs with four or more replicates, often used in forest genetics, the bias is negligible.