Development and Evaluation of a Biological Model to Assess Regional-Scale Effects of Acidification on Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar)

Abstract

We developed an age-structured simulation model incorporating pH-dependent mortality to assess impacts of acidification on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations at the reach and river system level. Applied to the LaHave River, Nova Scotia, acidic reaches (mean annual pH 4.6–5.1) were predicted to have 0–15% of the annual smoit production and 0–31% of the maiden spawner production compared with circumneutral reaches (pH ≥ 5.6) and increased juvenile growth due to lower parr densities. The benefit of increased growth (earlier age of smoltification and increased early marine survival) was not sufficient to outweigh impacts of higher freshwater juvenile mortality. Simulated removal of acidic conditions resulted in a 41% increase in recruits, but only after several decades following complete chemical recovery. Circumneutral reaches were predicted to be 4–12 times more efficient at producing smolts and 3–7 times more efficient at producing adults from hatchery fingerlings compared with acidic reaches. To maintain current target egg deposition rates of 240 eggs/100 m2, circumneutral reaches could withstand grilse exploitation rates of up to 65%, while acidic reaches, even without harvesting mortality, could not maintain this level. Fisheries management strategies need to account for variability in freshwater production both within and between river systems.