Muskrat distributions in a changing Arctic delta are explained by patch composition and configuration

Abstract

Climate change is altering Canada’s western Arctic, including hydrology in the heterogeneous environment of the Mackenzie Delta, and these changes are impacting biotic communities. Muskrats are culturally important semi-aquatic rodents whose populations may respond to changing water levels in this region. We investigated the importance of patch configuration and patch composition — two properties affected by climate change — on muskrat presence and distribution in the Mackenzie Delta, using remote sensing and field-based surveys of lakes with and without muskrats. We tested multiple hypotheses about predictors of muskrat and forage biomass presence using a model-selection approach. We found that configuration and patch composition explained muskrat distribution in the Mackenzie Delta, with composition being of greater importance. Muskrats were more likely to occur in lakes with longer perimeters, higher amounts of forage biomass, and sediment characteristics that supported macrophyte growth. The latter two conditions are related to spring flooding regimes, which will likely be altered by climate change. This may result in a decrease in muskrat habitat in the Mackenzie Delta. Our research indicates that both patch composition and configuration are important for understanding species distributions in heterogeneous environments.