A procedure for constructing timber management strategies under uncertainty

Abstract

A methodology for constructing timber management strategies is described which recognizes potential deviations from expected response and various degrees of risk aversion. The technique employs a mathematical programming structure to identify an efficient management strategy expected to satisfy a particular harvesting profile. Aversion to the risk associated with the uncertainty of treatment response is reflected by a penalty component in the objective function. A simple example employing linear programming is presented and discussed to illustrate potential applications.