An analytic hierarchy process based model for risk and opportunity assessment of international construction projects

Abstract

Risk assessment of international projects is a complicated task because of the sensitivity of project success related to country specific risks as well as project risks. Decision makers face the difficulty of weighing project opportunities against risks and determining attractiveness of projects while giving bidding decisions. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for risk and opportunity assessment of international projects. The proposed model uses an analytic hierarchy process for calculation of risk and opportunity ratings. A risk breakdown structure, specific to international construction projects, is proposed as well as a list of factors that affect the ability of construction companies to manage risk. An application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by using real data supplied by a construction company that is experienced in international markets. Ranking of project options is made according to the opportunity and risk ratings that are calculated by using the proposed methodology based on the judgments of company professionals.Key words: international construction, risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process.