Predicting distribution overlaps between Dendroctonus adjunctus Blandford 1897 and six Pinus species in Mexico under global climate change

Abstract

Species that coexist nowadays will not necessarily match their distributions in the future due to different climate suitability. The aim of this study was to identify potential distribution areas where the bark beetle Dendroctonus adjunctus and six of its host tree species overlap under different climate change scenarios. Potential distribution maps were built with species presence data using the MaxLike R library. For each projection, we used WorldClim bioclimatic variables, current and future (2050, 2070) condition climate data, two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5), and three general circulation models. The results show that the projected current potential distribution area of the bark beetle extends over 216 000 km2. This potential distribution range spans across 28 of the 32 Mexican states, eight of which have not yet reported the insect's presence. Of the 72 overlapping maps that we made, the largest covers more than 118 000 km2 for Pinus duranguensis, while all future projections show a reduction in spatial coincidence. Given future climatic scenarios, D. adjunctus will probably reach higher altitudinal sites. The information contained in this study can be used to identify areas to prioritize monitoring, management, plant sanitation treatment, and reforestation strategies in Mexican pine forests.