The cumulative impacts of climate change on Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and implications for management

Abstract

Anadromous Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) are vulnerable to climate change in both freshwater and marine habitats. I use a qualitative model to assess the cumulative effects of climate change across life stages and generations of Fraser River sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) and other salmon species. The effects of climate change most relevant to Fraser River sockeye include warming of freshwater and marine habitats, altered hydrology in spawning rivers, reduced productivity in nursery habitats, and changed distribution and phenology of predator and prey species. The weight of evidence indicates that these changes will negatively affect growth and survival of Fraser River sockeye at all life stages. Effects on one life stage will also carry forward to heighten adverse effects at subsequent life stages and across generations so that the cumulative impact is greater than the impact on individual stages. Salmon can adapt to climate change but probably not enough to sustain productivity. In the south, focus of policy and management on conserving and enhancing resilience is needed to retain some salmon production. At the same time, Arctic habitats are becoming accessible to salmon. Management in the Arctic should protect potentially productive habitats from development and facilitate their colonization by Pacific salmon.