Production of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to decadal-scale changes in the climate and the ocean

Abstract

The abundance of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks was low in the 1960s, increased to high levels in the 1980s, and possibly entered a period of low abundance in recent years. The abundance changes of the combined stocks can be separated into productivity regimes that correspond to changes in climate trends. The most distinct change occurred when there was a major change in the climate over the Pacific Ocean in the winter of 1976-1977. The existence of natural shifts in abundance trends means that the high returns that occur during periods of high productivity would not be expected to occur during the low-productivity periods. The response of Fraser River sockeye to climate changes may be a specific example of a more general response by a number of species of fishes in the Pacific and perhaps in other oceans. Because the shift from one regime to the other occurred quickly in the 1970s, future shifts could also occur quickly. It is necessary to detect natural shifts in productivity when attempting to manage fishing impacts to ensure that economic expectations are sound and that overfishing does not occur.