Increased hydropower potential at Niagara: a scenario-based analysis

Abstract

Research often ranges from incremental innovations of existing approaches to the development of novel methodologies. The current study seeks to combine both paradigms through consideration of a legacy hydro system. Stretched along the border between Canada and the US and regulated by a 1950 treaty, the Niagara River currently provides almost 5000 MW of renewable power. This paper develops a HEC-ResSim representation of the existing reservoir (power) system and uses this model to explore a variety of possible future scenarios. These possibilities will ultimately include considering the sensitivity of the system to climate change, reducing tourist flows, and exploring using additional storage to augment operational flows, although the current paper particularly details the scenario involving increased power diversion by somewhat relaxing treaty restrictions. Such an arrangement is shown to potentially increase monthly hydro discharges by 16% relative to the current baseline, and thus to permit an additional 1050 GWh of annual generation on the Canadian side alone. This preliminary exploratory study simply evaluates the potential hydro benefits by assessing the interplay between various system constraints if treaty provisions were ever to be reconsidered, and thus sets the stage for considering a variety of other scenarios.