Dynamic geography of small pelagic fish populations in the California Current System on the regime time scale (1931–1997)

Abstract

Climate regime shifts in the Northeast Pacific appear to have forced population size changes associated with major geographical variations in the position of the center of distribution and bulk of biomass of Pacific sardine (Sardinops caeruleus). These findings help explain the disappearance of sardines around 60 years ago at the northern part of the California Current System and their return following the 1980s. The spatial processes described here differ from those suggesting that environmental regime shifts lead to progressive increase–decrease of stock abundance associated with homogeneous expansion–contraction of its distribution range around a fixed geographical center. Sardine population changes are seemingly related to environmental variability, whereas the spatial pattern of abundance for the northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) appears to be inversely related to sardine population abundance. Anchovies increased where and when sardines were either absent or at a low population level. Thus, from the long-term and large-scale perspective, neither sardine nor anchovy populations conform to the simple homogeneous geographical range changes usually assumed. The sardine population changes its location within the ocean habitat in an evolving progression over a multidecadal time scale.