Pedunculate oak decline in southern Belgium: a long-term process highlighting the complex interplay among drought, winter frost, biotic attacks, and masting

Abstract

Since 2013, pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) mortality has been observed in the Ardennes region of Belgium. We aimed to understand the current decline by retrospectively (1945–2015) studying radial growth patterns of trees classified by three health statuses (reference, declining, and dying) and by linking them to abiotic and biotic hazard history, which we recorded and quantified. Our results show that oak mortality in the Ardennes is a long-term process, with 1987 as a tipping point for growth trajectories of declining and dying trees. That year was preceded by two growth crises (1976–1981 and 1984–1987), and it falls within the last major episode of oak decline in Belgium. Among hazards, very cold winters and caterpillar outbreaks have significant impacts on growth-pattern differentiation. Apart from 1976, extreme drought is still rare; however, mild spring droughts, especially in the years n − 1 and n − 2, explain some of the growth loss relative to the reference trees. Finally, masting appears to be an important contributing factor for the death of weakened trees. Given the direct and delayed impacts of the extreme drought of 1976 and subsequent water balance impairment due to winter frosts and mild spring droughts, the health of pedunculate oak is giving cause for concern in the context of climate change.