The 30-year dynamic of the softwood sawtimber stumpage market in Louisiana: insights from quarterly data from 1988 to 2017

Abstract

Based on a 30-year quarterly data set, this paper examines the dynamics of the softwood sawtimber stumpage market in Louisiana, United States, from 1988 to 2017. Cointegration analysis and the vector error correction model were used to examine the demand and supply of softwood sawtimber stumpage products in Louisiana. Competition among different stumpage products, seasonality patterns in the market, and the impact of some exogenous events were also investigated. The results showed that the demand for softwood sawtimber products is inelastic to its own price, whereas the supply is elastic. Strong seasonality patterns were detected for both stumpage price and harvest quantity. Significant substitution effects were also found among different types of stumpage products. In addition, the estimation results of the dynamic model suggested that, when facing an exogenous impact, the harvest quantity adjusts far quicker than the stumpage price in the Louisiana softwood sawtimber stumpage market.