Multidecadal trends in North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stocks and climate trends relevant to juvenile survival

Abstract

Landings of North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) over the past century show multidecadal patterns, which most recently characterize unprecedented declines in abundance. Stock size is compared with sea surface temperature (SST) data in the marine nurseries of post-smolt Atlantic salmon. A previously described correlation between stock abundance and winter SST conditions was again documented; however, of more relevance to the survival of salmon post-smolts, a correlation was also observed between abundance and spring SST in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The relevance of the winter SST correlation was further investigated by considering winter conditions in the freshwater nurseries as a factor causing elevated overwintering mortality of pre-migrant parr. The salmon abundance time series was compared with air temperature and rainfall trends averaged over time and space. Air temperature and rainfall do not appear to be significant environmental variables in shaping salmon recruitment. The timing of smolt runs appears to be out of synchronization with ocean conditions in the post-smolt nursery areas. The relationship between marine and freshwater impacts may change with changing climate conditions. Persistent positive phase forcing in the North Atlantic Oscillation raises the concern that recent declines in Atlantic salmon are, in part, due to global climate change.