Prediction of asphalt pavement performance based on DEPSO-BP neural network

Abstract

With the application of machine learning rapidly gaining popularity in computer science and other fields, neural network techniques have successfully simulated the performance of in-service pavements as they are efficient in predicting and solving nonlinear relationships and in dealing with uncertain large-area pavement problems. In this paper, we address the problem of the optimal timing of preventive maintenance of asphalt pavements to accurately predict the condition index (pavement condition index, PCI) of highway asphalt pavements and develop a highly accurate, long-period, multifactor prediction model with the suitability of preventive maintenance at its core. The prediction model is called differential evolution particle swarm optimization back propagation (DEPSO-BP) neural network, and the input dimension of the prediction model is determined by gray correlation analysis (GCA), and DEPSO is used to improve the search efficiency of BP neural network and the asphalt pavement usage performance with parameter continuity prediction model. Finally, the Qinglan Highway (G22) PCI of Gansu Province, China, is selected for example validation, and the prediction results are compared with those of the four models. The results show that the multifactor prediction model based on DEPSO-BP neural network has good generalization ability. This model is important for improving the economic efficiency of road maintenance, and can be used in the long-cycle process to provide model reference and scientific basis for the subsequent road maintenance budget application and decision-making scheme.