Exploring Implicit Relationships between Pavement Surface Friction and Vehicle Crash Severity Using Interpretable Extreme Gradient Boosting Method

Abstract

Pavement friction has been identified as crucial in traffic safety. Since the Highway Safety Manual prediction algorithm is often based on crash frequency, the crash severity distribution might be assumed unchanged before and after the countermeasure. However, pavement surface treatments can improve the friction to different levels, by which crash severity outcomes may vary greatly. To explore the implicit effects of pavement friction on vehicle crash severity, this paper first validates the extreme gradient boosting model performance and then the Shapley additive explanations interaction values are employed to interpret individual features and the nonlinear interactions among predictors. Under various scenarios, the XGBoost output probability is utilized to convert into dynamic crash severity distributions. Results also indicate that friction becomes more significant when the friction number is less than 38, and immediate corrective actions are needed when the friction number is below 20.