Predictive analytics on Engineer Manual 385 effectiveness of reducing number and severity of mishaps

Abstract

The United States Army Corps of Engineering Manual 385 (EM 385) has become a vital part of construction operations on all Department of Defense (DOD) construction projects to create a safer work environment. With tremendous effort on developing and enforcing the EM 385, the question of whether the EM 385 provides any value for project safety is critical to the construction industry at large. This study looks for causation between the EM 385 and mishap reduction by isolating three dependent variables and a variety of explanatory variables. The data was compiled using both the OSHA Data Initiative (ODI) and the Federal Spending Database. A structural equation is developed to conduct multiple regression analysis assuming EM 385 will reduce the number of mishaps and the severity of mishaps. However, the result shows the effectiveness of EM 385 on reducing the number and severity of mishaps is not significant.