Estimating establishment probabilities of Cladocera introduced at low density: an evaluation of the proposed ballast water discharge standards

Author:

Bailey Sarah A.12,Vélez-Espino Luis Antonio12,Johannsson Ora E.12,Koops Marten A.12,Wiley Chris J.12

Affiliation:

1. Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 867 Lakeshore Road, Box 5050, Burlington, ON L7R 4A6, Canada.

2. Fisheries and Oceans Canada – Transport Canada Marine Safety, 100 Front Street South, Sarnia, ON N7T 2M4, Canada.

Abstract

The International Maritime Organization has proposed ballast water discharge standards to reduce densities of taxa transported in ballast water. While reduced propagule pressure will almost certainly lower the risk of species introductions, we ask if the proposed standards will be effective against taxa capable of rapid population growth from small inocula, such as parthenogenetic taxa. We modified a diffusion approximation to calculate establishment probabilities as the probability of reaching a critical threshold density necessary to initiate sexual reproduction (and production of diapausing eggs for long-term persistence) before the onset of adverse environmental conditions. We parameterize our model for six Cladocera using growth rates measured during enclosure experiments conducted under favourable environmental conditions (i.e., using a precautionary approach). We then examine predicted establishment probabilities at different inoculum densities to determine the efficacy of the proposed ballast water discharge standards. Our results indicate that future technologies in compliance with the proposed standards could reduce establishment probabilities for some parthenogenetic zooplankton threefold; however, there is still a risk of establishment for some taxa.

Publisher

Canadian Science Publishing

Subject

Aquatic Science,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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