Projected climate conditions to 2100 for Regina, Saskatchewan

Abstract

Possible trends of climate (temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET)) for Regina, Saskatchewan are described, premised on comparisons of both projections from historical data and calculations from use of four general circulation models (GCMs). Results derived from GCMs of CGCM3.1, CCSM3, HadGEM1 and MIROC3.2, along with a series of storylines describing the relationships between the forces driving greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions during the 21st century, are employed which demonstrate increasing trends in temperature and precipitation. Unlike the identifiable and divergent projections of mean annual temperatures, there are relatively small differences in total annual precipitation projections using a number of projected scenarios of emissions. Further, although the projections indicate higher rates of precipitation are expected, there will not be increased water availability due to greater projected increases in PET, translating to there being less water available in the next century.