Spatial and temporal groupings of water main pipe breakage in Winnipeg

Abstract

The spatial and temporal patterns of water distribution pipe failure in the City of Winnipeg are examined. The failures are shown to be strongly clustered in space, where 22% of the total failures examined occur within 1 m of another failure and 46% occur within 20 m of another failure. A strong temporal clustering is also apparent, with 42% of all failures that occur within 1 m of another found also to occur within 1 day of the initial failure in the group. An exponential decrease in the marginal rates of failure with respect to both the temporal and spatial interval parameter is also observed. Earlier failures in a particular location appear to be an important key to assessing potential failures in that vicinity. These results suggest that a fruitful area for further examination for the reduction of failure rates is the change in the ground conditions resulting from an initial leak and its subsequent repair. Key words: failures, groupings, marginal rates, pipes, space, time, water distribution, Winnipeg.