Observed and predicted effects of climate change on Arctic caribou and reindeer

Abstract

The ability of many species to adapt to the shifting environmental conditions associated with climate change will be a key determinant of their persistence in the coming decades. This is a challenge already faced by species in the Arctic, where rapid environmental change is well underway. Caribou and reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) play a key role in Arctic ecosystems and provide irreplaceable socioeconomic value to many northern peoples. Recent decades have seen declines in many Rangifer populations, and there is strong concern that climate change is threatening the viability of this iconic Arctic species. We examine the literature to provide a thorough and full consideration of the many environmental factors that limit caribou and reindeer populations, and how these might be affected by a warming climate. Our review suggests that the response of Rangifer populations to climate change is, and will continue to be, varied in large part to their broad circumpolar distribution. While caribou and reindeer could have some resilience to climate change, current global trends in abundance undermine all but the most precautionary outlooks. Ultimately, the conservation of Rangifer populations will require careful management that considers the local and regional manifestations of climate change.